Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion
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i'm not in singapore but by looking at the figures there i was shocked at how low the amount of cases there were and also no deaths from the virus. with such a heavily concentrated population, you would think that it would've spread fast..
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In a pond, there is a lily pad that doubles its size every day. On the 28th day, the lily pad covered the whole pond, in what day does the lily pad covered only half of the pond?
Exactly. 4 days before the last day, you have less than 10% of the pond covered. Think about it.
In all likelihood this epidemic will result in hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone.
How did you extrapolate that number? There are 39 that have died in the US so far. More people have recovered from Covid-19 than have died.
More people will survive the infection than die from it, of course. The lethality is probably 1% to 4%, depending. However, it's estimated rated that 40% - 70% of the population is likely to contract the disease at some point. In a country of 330M people, you end up with 100's of 1,000,000's dead.
Again, please take 20mn to read this: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
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i'm not in singapore but by looking at the figures there i was shocked at how low the amount of cases there were and also no deaths from the virus. with such a heavily concentrated population, you would think that it would've spread fast..
Some Asian countries (e.g., South Korea) seem to be reacting very forcefully and effectively. I'm worried about Japan (no school closure so far and Olympics are still scheduled for this Summer).
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I'm an administrator at an elementary school and we are trying to develop a plan to move to distance learning so we can apply for a waiver to count these days and don't have to hold classes until June 30th….
Up here those grocery delivery services are no longer delivering....
My kids (two 4 year-olds) will spend a tremendous amount of time on their tablets and watching movies while I try to get some stuff done.... but they will also get a healthy dose of bike rides, hikes, bouncy house jumping, and backyard playground playing as well (and lots of frozen pizza!).
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Some Asian countries (e.g., South Korea) seem to be reacting very forcefully and effectively. I'm worried about Japan (no school closure so far and Olympics are still scheduled for this Summer).
south korea has taken a big hit based on their figures. i think japan unlucky since the cruise ships that were docked and banned from port there affected their number of cases greatly. i think japan isn't as bad as it seems.
i personally feel that there's nothing to be worried about. the cases exploding around Europe is because they have failed to prepare themselves initially. also, i feel that they may lack the experience from SARS. if you look at Singapore's figures, a country with such high density and small size should've been one of the worse. but it's all being managed quite well. Even HK with it's close proximity to China is doing very well.
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Went to two different grocery stores today and the first was picked through pretty heavily, especially frozen veggies and TP. The second, which was Aldi, was decently stocked because they had a limit on the number of certain goods you could buy to prevent hoarding. Seems sensible to me. One guy tried buying a ton of canned goods and the cashier told him he could only get 4 [emoji23] Bog roll was 1 per customer. I really like the way Aldi runs their company [emoji106]
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i personally feel that there's nothing to be worried about.
I'm curious whether you have read at least the 5mn read article I posted? I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right, but the consequences of being wrong one way (being too prudent) vs the other way are very much not symmetrical.
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I worry about the folks in Italy. Not a good situation if you are old and you have some underlying medical conditions. Taiwan and Singapore are doing better. I think they prepared themselves way earlier than a lot of other nations. Maybe they are more strict with entry and exit points and perhaps more vigilant after SARs, H1N1. Call me a pessimist :(, I also worry about the future. It will be coming in waves, stronger and stronger each time.
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i personally feel that there's nothing to be worried about.
I'm curious whether you have read at least the 5mn read article I posted? I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right, but the consequences of being wrong one way (being too prudent) vs the other way are very much not symmetrical.
I don’t think anyone is taking this situation lightly. I’m well aware of how dangerous Covid-19 poses to the population but my outlook is slightly less bleak given our past experiences with pandemics. There will be more deaths and more supply chain disruptions but panicking isn’t going to help me or anyone else for that matter. I’ll simply take the same precautions I usually do as recommended by the CDC.
The article below puts things into perspective, at least for me.
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@louisbosco speaks the truth regarding lessons learnt. There is reason to believe the experiences of SARS have left Taiwan, Singapore and other countries well prepared. Swift, decisive action worked. I’m more worried for the UK, USA and Japan who seem to be uncoordinated in their approach and relying on public discipline. That may work in Japan to degree, but won’t in other countries.
One scenario for Norway, developed by the authorities, looked at what would happen with zero restrictive measures. It suggested that 80% of the population would be infected withn half a year. Factoring in vectors of infection and total number of intensive care places they estimated a 4-6% mortality rate. That would mean around 200.000 deaths in a country of 5.2m over a six month period.
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I'm shocked that grocery delivery services would stop. They are the best options for now, by far.
From my understanding of trying to use them is that they are overwhelmed both in requests for deliveries and their supplies in terms of item stock. I'm confident they'll sort it out and I hope to use it, but right now with this initial shock, it's not working in my area. Literally since Wed my neck of the woods went from reading about it to dealing with it.
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I'm curious whether you have read at least the 5mn read article I posted? I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right, but the consequences of being wrong one way (being too prudent) vs the other way are very much not symmetrical.
i did not but i just did. some things listed in the article makes sense but some of it are over the top too. unfortunately, there are many varying factors as to why deaths occur, with pre-existing conditons and age as a huge factor. these numbers without those factors included are not info and released to the public could and already has trigger widespread panic and fear.
everyone bangs on about the number infection and the death toll so much that nobody seems to mention that amount of people that have actually been cured or are in a stable condition. i won't be surprised if some people believe that once they get it, they'll be dead.
also, it's good to remember the panic and fear doesn't make you immune. stocking up and panic buying isn't going to make you safe even if you stayed home. the paranoia will probably kill you before the virus does.
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Yeah that wasn't a very rational comment was it.
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https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic#article
Take this with a grain of salt but it only reinforces what we already know, that most of those that have died were the elderly with underlying health issues. I think @louisbosco is correct by saying that people are acting as though they’re going to drop dead if they catch the virus, which is not the case.
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Anyone acting like they’re going to drop dead from it the moment they get it is a moron. The death rate and at risk groups have been clear for some time now.
But this is exactly the problem with a lot of the narrative around the disease. It is either «we’re all going to die», or «this is nothing». Both are far from the truth and seriously reductive.
In Iran, the site of the second major cluster, with an inept dictatorship, and a poor infrastructure, they are currently digging mass graves, and nobody knows the actual death toll. If they’re digging mass graves though, it’s bad.
Italy were unprepared and responded too slowly, and the death rate there is way higher than it needs to be as a result of overcrowded hospitals and an aging population. To keep the death rate at or around that of seasonal flu you need respirators. Otherwise people of all ages with or without underlying symptoms can die of pneumonia, especially when it can’t be treated with antibiotics. If countries don’t cut off infection vectors and flatten the curve of the epidemic, that will happen to them too.
The media and folks on the street really do need to stop overreacting and being hysterical. But they also need to stop writing this off as «just like the flu» and not a big deal. Both of those are emotional reactions that ignore the facts of the matter.
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@gaseousclay I’d consider this interview with a US expert on the matter as credible. Here he discusses the American response. Note what he says about comparisons to the flu:
